DT-Transformer: A Foundation Model for Disease Trajectory Prediction on a Real-world Health System

Accurate disease trajectory prediction is critical for early intervention, resource allocation, and improving long-term outcomes. While electronic health records (EHRs) provide a rich longitudinal view of patient health in clinical environments, models trained on curated research cohorts may not reflect routine deployment settings, and those trained on single-hospital datasets capture only fragments of each patient's trajectory. This highlights the importance of leveraging large, multi-hospital health systems for training and validation to better reflect real-world clinical complexity. In this work, we develop DT-Transformer, a foundation model trained on 57.1M structured EHR entries over 1.7M patients from Mass General Brigham (MGB), spanning 11 hospitals and a broad network of outpatient clinics. DT-Transformer achieves strong discrimination in both held-out and prospective validation settings. Next-event prediction achieves a median age- and sex-stratified AUC of 0.871 across 896 disease categories, with all categories exceeding AUC 0.5. These results support health system-scale training as a path toward foundation models suited to real-world clinical forecasting.

Exploitation of Hidden Context in Dynamic Movement Forecasting: A Neural Network Journey from Recurrent to Graph Neural Networks and General Purpose Transformers

Forecasting within signal processing pipelines is crucial for mitigating delays, particularly in predicting the dynamic movements of objects such as NBA players. This task poses significant challenges due to the inherently interactive and unpredictable nature of sports, where abrupt changes in velocity and direction are prevalent. Traditional approaches, including (S)ARIMA(X), Kalman filters (KF), and Particle filters (PF), often struggle to model the non-linear dynamics present in such scenarios. Machine learning (ML) methods, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and Transformers, offer greater flexibility and accuracy but frequently fail to explicitly capture the interplay between temporal dependencies and contextual interactions, which are critical in chaotic sports environments. In this paper, we evaluate these models and assess their strengths and weaknesses. Experimental results reveal key performance trade-offs across input history length, generalizability, and the ability to incorporate contextual information. ML-based methods demonstrated substantial improvements over linear models across forecast horizons of up to 2s. Among the tested architectures, our hybrid LSTM augmented with contextual information achieved the lowest final displacement error (FDE) of 1.51m, outperforming temporal convolutional neural network (TCNN), graph attention network (GAT), and Transformers, while also requiring less data and training time compared to GAT and Transformers. Our findings indicate that no single architecture excels across all metrics, emphasizing the need for task-specific considerations in trajectory prediction for fast-paced, dynamic environments such as NBA gameplay.

FU-MPC: Frontier- and Uncertainty-Aware Model Predictive Control for Efficient and Accurate UAV Exploration with Motorized LiDAR

Efficient UAV exploration in unknown environments requires rapid coverage expansion while maintaining accurate and reliable localization, since safe navigation in complex scenes depends on consistent mapping and pose estimation. However, for conventional LiDAR-equipped UAVs, the observable region is tightly coupled with the UAV pose and motion. Expanding coverage often requires additional translational or rotational maneuvers, which can reduce exploration efficiency and increase the risk of localization degradation in geometrically challenging environments. Motorized rotating LiDARs provide a promising solution by actively adjusting the sensor viewing direction without changing the UAV motion, thereby introducing an additional sensing degree of freedom. Nevertheless, existing exploration systems rarely exploit this scanning freedom as an explicit decision variable linked to both exploration progress and localization quality. To address this gap, we develop a UAV platform equipped with an independently actuated rotating LiDAR and propose a hierarchical exploration framework. The global planner organizes frontiers into representative viewpoints and sequences them using topology-aware transition costs. Built upon this planner, FU-MPC serves as a local receding-horizon scan controller that optimizes LiDAR rotation along the predicted flight trajectory. The controller jointly considers frontier-aware exploration utility and direction-dependent localization uncertainty, while lightweight surrogate evaluation enables real-time onboard execution. Experiments in complex environments demonstrate that the proposed system improves exploration efficiency while maintaining robust localization performance compared with fixed-pattern scanning and uncertainty-only baselines. The project page can be found at https://kafeiyin00.github.io/FU-MPC/.

Causality-Aware End-to-End Autonomous Driving via Ego-Centric Joint Scene Modeling

End-to-end autonomous driving, which bypasses traditional modular pipelines by directly predicting future trajectories from sensor inputs, has recently achieved substantial progress. However, existing methods often overlook the causal inter-dependencies in ego-vehicle planning, ignoring the reciprocal relations between the ego vehicle and surrounding agents. This causal oversight leads to inconsistent and unreliable trajectory predictions, especially in interaction-critical scenarios where ego decisions and neighboring agent behaviors must be reasoned about jointly. To address this limitation, we propose CaAD, a Causality-aware end-to-end Autonomous Driving framework that captures these dependencies within a shared latent scene representation. First, we propose a ego-centric joint-causal modeling module that builds on the marginal prediction branch, and learns causal dependencies between the ego vehicle and interaction-relevant agents. Second, we employ a causality-aware policy alignment stage implemented with joint-mode embeddings to align the stochastic ego policy with planning-oriented closed-loop feedback computed from surrounding traffic and map context. On the Bench2Drive and NAVSIM benchmarks, CaAD demonstrates strong closed-loop planning performance, achieving a Driving Score of 87.53 and Success Rate of 71.81 on Bench2Drive, and a PDMS of 91.1 on NAVSIM.

Real2Sim: A Physics-driven and Editable Gaussian Splatting Framework for Autonomous Driving Scenes

Reliable autonomous driving relies on large-scale, well-labeled data and robust models. However, manual data collection is resource-intensive, and traditional simulation suffers from a persistent reality gap. While recent generative frameworks and radiance-field methods improve visual fidelity, they still struggle with temporal and spatial consistency and cannot ensure physics-aware behavior, limiting their applicability to driving scenario generation. To address these challenges, we propose Real2Sim, an unified framework that combines 4D Gaussian Splatting (4DGS) with a differentiable Material Point Method (MPM) solver. Real2Sim explicitly reconstructs dynamic driving scenes as temporally continuous Gaussian primitives, supports instance-level editing, and simulates realistic object-object and object-environment interactions. This framework enables physics-aware, high-fidelity synthesis of diverse, editable scenarios, including challenging corner cases such as collisions and post-impact trajectories. Experiments on the Waymo Open Dataset validate Real2Sim's capabilities in rendering, reconstruction, editing, and physics simulation, demonstrating its potential as a scalable tool for data generation in downstream tasks such as perception, tracking, trajectory prediction, and end-to-end policy learning.

Bayesian Nonparametric Mixed-Effect ODEs with Gaussian Processes

Dynamical modelling is central to many scientific domains, including pharmacometrics, systems biology, physiology, and epidemiology. In these settings, heterogeneity is often intrinsic: different subjects or units follow related but distinct continuous-time dynamics. Classical nonlinear mixed-effects Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models address this by combining population-level structure with subject-specific effects, but they rely on a parametric vector field and are therefore vulnerable to structural misspecification and unmodelled mechanisms. This motivates nonparametric approaches that can retain principled uncertainty quantification, yet existing nonparametric ODE methods typically assume a single shared dynamical system rather than an explicit mixed-effect hierarchy over subject-specific dynamics. We propose MEGPODE, a Bayesian nonparametric mixed-effect ODE model in which each subject's vector field is decomposed into a shared population component and a subject-specific deviation, both endowed with Gaussian process (GP) priors. To avoid repeated ODE solves per subject during training, we combine state-space GP trajectory priors with virtual collocation observations, yielding Kalman-smoothing trajectory updates and closed-form regressions for the vector fields. Across controlled heterogeneous ODE benchmarks spanning oscillatory, biomedical systems, MEGPODE improves population-field recovery and subject-level trajectory prediction relative to strong baselines.

CLOVER: Closed-Loop Value Estimation \& Ranking for End-to-End Autonomous Driving Planning

End-to-end autonomous driving planners are commonly trained by imitating a single logged trajectory, yet evaluated by rule-based planning metrics that measure safety, feasibility, progress, and comfort. This creates a training--evaluation mismatch: trajectories close to the logged path may violate planning rules, while alternatives farther from the demonstration can remain valid and high-scoring. The mismatch is especially limiting for proposal-selection planners, whose performance depends on candidate-set coverage and scorer ranking quality. We propose CLOVER, a Closed-LOop Value Estimation and Ranking framework for end-to-end autonomous driving planning. CLOVER follows a lightweight generator--scorer formulation: a generator produces diverse candidate trajectories, and a scorer predicts planning-metric sub-scores to rank them at inference time. To expand proposal support beyond single-trajectory imitation, CLOVER constructs evaluator-filtered pseudo-expert trajectories and trains the generator with set-level coverage supervision. It then performs conservative closed-loop self-distillation: the scorer is fitted to true evaluator sub-scores on generated proposals, while the generator is refined toward teacher-selected top-$k$ and vector-Pareto targets with stability regularization. We analyze when an imperfect scorer can improve the generator, showing that scorer-mediated refinement is reliable when scorer-selected targets are enriched under the true evaluator and updates remain conservative. On NAVSIM, CLOVER achieves 94.5 PDMS and 90.4 EPDMS, establishing a new state of the art. On the more challenging NavHard split, it obtains 48.3 EPDMS, matching the strongest reported result. On supplementary nuScenes open-loop evaluation, CLOVER achieves the lowest L2 error and collision rate among compared methods. Code data will be released at https://github.com/WilliamXuanYu/CLOVER.

DynoJEPP: Joint Estimation, Prediction and Planning in Dynamic Environments

DynoJEPP is a factor-graph-based framework that jointly formulates and simultaneously optimizes estimation, prediction, and planning in dynamic environments. In conventional factor-graph-based approaches that jointly formulate estimation, prediction, and planning, information from prediction and planning feeds back into state estimation, yielding corrupted estimates, undesired behaviors, and unsafe plans. To address this, DynoJEPP introduces a novel directed factor that enforces directional information flow within the factor graph, preventing prediction and planning from corrupting state estimation. We evaluate the impact of directed factors on inter-module interactions during navigation in both static and dynamic environments. Our results demonstrate that these factors are critical for safe operation, as without them, the robot collides in the majority of experiments. Building on this, we further introduce Cooperative DynoJEPP, which enables the ego robot to incorporate cooperative object behavior into its prediction and trajectory planning.

Encore: Conditioning Trajectory Forecasting via Biased Ego Rehearsals

Learning and representing the subjectivities of agents has become a challenging but crucial problem in the trajectory prediction task. Such subjectivities not only present specific spatial or temporal structures, but also are anisotropic for all interaction participants. Despite great efforts, it remains difficult to explicitly learn and forecast these subjectivities, let alone further modulate models' predictions through a specific ego's subjectivity. Inspired by prefactual thoughts in psychology and relevant theatrical concepts, we interpret such subjectivities in future trajectories as the continuous process from rehearsal to encore. In the rehearsal phase, the proposed ego predictor focuses on how each ego agent learns to derive and direct a set of explicitly biased rehearsal trajectories for all participants in the scene from the short-term observations. Then, these rehearsal trajectories serve as immediate controls to condition final predictions, providing direct yet distinct ego biases for the prediction network to simulate agents' various subjectivities. Experiments across datasets not only demonstrate a consistent improvement in the performance of the proposed \emph{Encore} trajectory prediction model but also provide clear interpretability regarding subjectivities as biased ego rehearsals.

Watch your neighbors: Training statistically accurate chaotic systems with local phase space information

Chaotic systems pose fundamental challenges for data-driven dynamics discovery, as small modeling errors lead to exponentially growing trajectory discrepancies. Since exact long-term prediction is unattainable, it is natural to ask what a good surrogate model for chaotic dynamics is. Prior work has largely focused either on reproducing the Jacobian of the underlying dynamics, which governs local expansion and contraction rates, or on training surrogate models that reproduce the ground-truth dynamics' long-term statistical behavior. In this work, we propose a new framework that aims to bridge these two paradigms by training surrogate dynamics models with accurate Jacobians and long-term statistical properties. Our method constructs a local covering of a chaotic attractor in phase space and analyzes the expansion and contraction of these coverings under the dynamics. The surrogate model is trained by minimizing the maximum mean discrepancy between the pushforward distributions of the coverings under the surrogate and ground-truth dynamics. Experiments show that our method significantly improves Jacobian accuracy while remaining competitive with state-of-the-art statistically accurate dynamics learning methods. Our code is fully available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/neighborwatch.