Trajectory-Aware Reliability Modeling of Democratic Systems

Failures in complex systems often emerge through gradual degradation and the propagation of stress across interacting components rather than through isolated shocks. Democratic systems exhibit similar dynamics, where weakening institutions can trigger cascading deterioration in related institutional structures. Traditional reliability and survival models typically estimate failure risk based on the current system state but do not explicitly capture how degradation propagates through institutional networks over time. This paper introduces a trajectory-aware reliability modeling framework based on Dynamic Causal Neural Autoregression (DCNAR). The framework first estimates a causal interaction structure among institutional indicators and then models their joint temporal evolution to generate forward trajectories of system states. Failure risk is defined as the probability that predicted trajectories cross predefined degradation thresholds within a fixed horizon. Using longitudinal institutional indicators, we compare DCNAR-based trajectory risk models with discrete-time hazard and Cox proportional hazards models. Results show that trajectory-aware modeling consistently outperforms Cox models and improves risk prediction for several propagation-driven institutional failures. These findings highlight the importance of modeling dynamic system interactions for reliability analysis and early detection of systemic degradation.

DialToM: A Theory of Mind Benchmark for Forecasting State-Driven Dialogue Trajectories

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to possess Theory of Mind (ToM) abilities. However, it remains unclear whether this stems from robust reasoning or spurious correlations. We introduce DialToM, a human-verified benchmark built from natural human dialogue using a multiple-choice framework. We evaluate not only mental state prediction (Literal ToM) but also the functional utility of these states (Functional ToM) through Prospective Diagnostic Forecasting -- probing whether models can identify state-consistent dialogue trajectories solely from mental-state profiles. Our results reveal a significant reasoning asymmetry: while LLMs excel at identifying mental states, most (except for Gemini 3 Pro) fail to leverage this understanding to forecast social trajectories. Additionally, we find only weak semantic similarities between human and LLM-generated inferences. To facilitate reproducibility, the DialToM dataset and evaluation code are publicly available at https://github.com/Stealth-py/DialToM.

Relative Entropy Estimation in Function Space: Theory and Applications to Trajectory Inference

Trajectory Inference (TI) seeks to recover latent dynamical processes from snapshot data, where only independent samples from time-indexed marginals are observed. In applications such as single-cell genomics, destructive measurements make path-space laws non-identifiable from finitely many marginals, leaving held-out marginal prediction as the dominant but limited evaluation protocol. We introduce a general framework for estimating the Kullback-Leibler divergence (KL) divergence between probability measures on function space, yielding a tractable, data-driven estimator that is scalable to realistic snapshot datasets. We validate the accuracy of our estimator on a benchmark suite, where the estimated functional KL closely matches the analytic KL. Applying this framework to synthetic and real scRNA-seq datasets, we show that current evaluation metrics often give inconsistent assessments, whereas path-space KL enables a coherent comparison of trajectory inference methods and exposes discrepancies in inferred dynamics, especially in regions with sparse or missing data. These results support functional KL as a principled criterion for evaluating trajectory inference under partial observability.

Bimanual Robot Manipulation via Multi-Agent In-Context Learning

Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful reasoning engines for embodied control. In particular, In-Context Learning (ICL) enables off-the-shelf, text-only LLMs to predict robot actions without any task-specific training while preserving their generalization capabilities. Applying ICL to bimanual manipulation remains challenging, as the high-dimensional joint action space and tight inter-arm coordination constraints rapidly overwhelm standard context windows. To address this, we introduce BiCICLe (Bimanual Coordinated In-Context Learning), the first framework that enables standard LLMs to perform few-shot bimanual manipulation without fine-tuning. BiCICLe frames bimanual control as a multi-agent leader-follower problem, decoupling the action space into sequential, conditioned single-arm predictions. This naturally extends to Arms' Debate, an iterative refinement process, and to the introduction of a third LLM-as-Judge to evaluate and select the most plausible coordinated trajectories. Evaluated on 13 tasks from the TWIN benchmark, BiCICLe achieves up to 71.1% average success rate, outperforming the best training-free baseline by 6.7 percentage points and surpassing most supervised methods. We further demonstrate strong few-shot generalization on novel tasks.

Causal-Transformer with Adaptive Mutation-Locking for Early Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury

Accurate early prediction of Acute Kidney Injury (AKI) is critical for timely clinical intervention. However, existing deep learning models struggle with irregularly sampled data and suffer from the opaque "black-box" nature of sequential architectures, strictly limiting clinical trust. To address these challenges, we propose CT-Former, integrating continuous-time modeling with a Causal-Transformer. To handle data irregularity without biased artificial imputation, our framework utilizes a continuous-time state evolution mechanism to naturally track patient temporal trajectories. To resolve the black-box problem, our Causal-Attention module abandons uninterpretable hidden state aggregation. Instead, it generates a directed structural causal matrix to identify and trace the exact historical onset of severe physiological shocks. By establishing clear causal pathways between historical anomalies and current risk predictions, CT-Former provides native clinical interpretability. Training follows a decoupled two-stage protocol to optimize the causal-fusion process independently. Extensive experiments on the MIMIC-IV cohort (N=18,419) demonstrate that CT-Former significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines. The results confirm that our explicitly transparent architecture offers an accurate and trustworthy tool for clinical decision-making.

Personalized electric vehicle energy consumption estimation framework that integrates driver behavior with map data

This paper presents a personalized Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) energy consumption estimation framework that integrates map-based contextual features with driver-specific velocity prediction and physics-based energy consumption modeling. The system combines route selection, detailed road feature processing, a rule-based reference velocity generator, a PID controller-based vehicle dynamics simulator, and a Bidirectional LSTM model trained to reproduce individual driving behavior. The predicted individual-specific velocity profiles are coupled with a quasi-steady backward energy consumption model to compute tractive power, regenerative braking, and State-of-Charge (SOC) evolution. Evaluation across urban, freeway, and hilly routes demonstrates that the proposed approach captures key driver behavioral patterns such as deceleration at intersections, speed-limit tracking, and road grade-dependent responses, while producing accurate power and SOC trajectories. The results highlight the effectiveness of combining learned driver behavior with map-based context and physics-based energy consumption modeling to produce accurate, personalized BEV SOC depletion profiles.

Paparazzo: Active Mapping of Moving 3D Objects

Current 3D mapping pipelines generally assume static environments, which limits their ability to accurately capture and reconstruct moving objects. To address this limitation, we introduce the novel task of active mapping of moving objects, in which a mapping agent must plan its trajectory while compensating for the object's motion. Our approach, Paparazzo, provides a learning-free solution that robustly predicts the target's trajectory and identifies the most informative viewpoints from which to observe it, to plan its own path. We also contribute a comprehensive benchmark designed for this new task. Through extensive experiments, we show that Paparazzo significantly improves 3D reconstruction completeness and accuracy compared to several strong baselines, marking an important step toward dynamic scene understanding. Project page: https://davidea97.github.io/paparazzo-page/

Cold-Start Forecasting of New Product Life-Cycles via Conditional Diffusion Models

Forecasting the life-cycle trajectory of a newly launched product is important for launch planning, resource allocation, and early risk assessment. This task is especially difficult in the pre-launch and early post-launch phases, when product-specific outcome history is limited or unavailable, creating a cold-start problem. In these phases, firms must make decisions before demand patterns become reliably observable, while early signals are often sparse, noisy, and unstable We propose the Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF), a conditional generative framework for forecasting new-product life-cycle trajectories under cold start. CDLF combines three sources of information: static descriptors, reference trajectories from similar products, and newly arriving observations when available. Here, static descriptors refer to structured pre-launch characteristics of the product, such as category, price tier, brand or organization identity, scale, and access conditions. This structure allows the model to condition forecasts on relevant product context and to update them adaptively over time without retraining, yielding flexible multi-modal predictive distributions under extreme data scarcity. The method satisfies consistency with a horizon-uniform distributional error bound for recursive generation. Across studies on Intel microprocessor stock keeping unit (SKU) life cycles and the platform-mediated adoption of open large language model repositories, CDLF delivers more accurate point forecasts and higher-quality probabilistic forecasts than classical diffusion models, Bayesian updating approaches, and other state-of-the-art machine-learning baselines.

Chatting about Conditional Trajectory Prediction

Human behavior has the nature of mutual dependencies, which requires human-robot interactive systems to predict surrounding agents trajectories by modeling complex social interactions, avoiding collisions and executing safe path planning. While there exist many trajectory prediction methods, most of them do not incorporate the own motion of the ego agent and only model interactions based on static information. We are inspired by the humans theory of mind during trajectory selection and propose a Cross time domain intention-interactive method for conditional Trajectory prediction(CiT). Our proposed CiT conducts joint analysis of behavior intentions over time, and achieves information complementarity and integration across different time domains. The intention in its own time domain can be corrected by the social interaction information from the other time domain to obtain a more precise intention representation. In addition, CiT is designed to closely integrate with robotic motion planning and control modules, capable of generating a set of optional trajectory prediction results for all surrounding agents based on potential motions of the ego agent. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed CiT significantly outperforms the existing methods, achieving state-of-the-art performance in the benchmarks.

Efficient Multi-Cohort Inference for Long-Term Effects and Lifetime Value in A/B Testing with User Learning

In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may fail to capture how a treatment affects users' retention. Consequently, an intervention may appear beneficial in the short term and neutral in the long term while still generating lower total value than the control due to users churn. To address this limitation, we introduce a method that estimates long-term treatment effects (LTE) and residual lifetime value change ($ΔERLV$) in short multi-cohort A/B tests under user learning. To estimate time-varying treatment effects efficiently, we introduce an inverse-variance weighted estimator that combines multiple cohorts estimates, reducing variance relative to standard approaches in the literature. The estimated treatment trajectory is then modeled as a parametric decay to recover both the asymptotic treatment effect and the cumulative value generated over time. Our framework enables simultaneous evaluation of steady-state impact and residual user value within a single experiment. Empirical results show improved precision in estimating LTE and $ΔERLV$ and identify scenarios in which relying on either short-term or long-term metrics alone would lead to incorrect product decisions.