Forecasting the Past: Gradient-Based Distribution Shift Detection in Trajectory Prediction

Trajectory prediction models often fail in real-world automated driving due to distributional shifts between training and test conditions. Such distributional shifts, whether behavioural or environmental, pose a critical risk by causing the model to make incorrect forecasts in unfamiliar situations. We propose a self-supervised method that trains a decoder in a post-hoc fashion on the self-supervised task of forecasting the second half of observed trajectories from the first half. The L2 norm of the gradient of this forecasting loss with respect to the decoder's final layer defines a score to identify distribution shifts. Our approach, first, does not affect the trajectory prediction model, ensuring no interference with original prediction performance and second, demonstrates substantial improvements on distribution shift detection for trajectory prediction on the Shifts and Argoverse datasets. Moreover, we show that this method can also be used to early detect collisions of a deep Q-Network motion planner in the Highway simulator. Source code is available at https://github.com/Michedev/forecasting-the-past.

MeloTune: On-Device Arousal Learning and Peer-to-Peer Mood Coupling for Proactive Music Curation

MeloTune is an iPhone-deployed music agent that instantiates the Mesh Memory Protocol (MMP) and Symbolic-Vector Attention Fusion (SVAF) as a production system for affect-aware music curation with peer-to-peer mood coupling. Each device runs two closed-form continuous-time (CfC) networks: a private listener-level CfC that predicts a short-horizon affective trajectory on Russell's circumplex and drives proactive curation, and a shared mesh-runtime CfC at MMP Layer 6 that integrates Cognitive Memory Blocks (CMBs) from co-listening peers. CfC hidden states never cross the wire; only structured CMBs do. A Personal Arousal Function (PAF) replaces the standard linear mapping from audio intensity to psychological arousal with a per-listener learned adjustment, trained from behavioral signals (skip, completion, favorite, volume) and from drift between user-declared mood and machine inference. The same track receives different arousal predictions for different listeners. The model (94,552 parameters) achieves trajectory MAE 0.414, pattern accuracy 96.6%, and intent accuracy 69.4% on held-out validation. PAF evidence from a live deployment session (46 observations across 11 genres) demonstrates that the learning loop operates end-to-end, with pop reaching full confidence after 22 observations. All inference runs on-device via CoreML. To our knowledge, this is the first production deployment of MMP/SVAF on consumer mobile hardware. The accompanying SDK (sym-swift v0.3.78, SYMCore v0.3.7) enforces strict protocol conformance. Music is the case study; the substrate is the contribution.

Hypergraph-State Collaborative Reasoning for Multi-Object Tracking

Motion reasoning serves as the cornerstone of multi-object tracking (MOT), as it enables consistent association of targets across frames. However, existing motion estimation approaches face two major limitations: (1) instability caused by noisy or probabilistic predictions, and (2) vulnerability under occlusion, where trajectories often fragment once visual cues disappear. To overcome these issues, we propose a collaborative reasoning framework that enhances motion estimation through joint inference among multiple correlated objects. By allowing objects with similar motion states to mutually constrain and refine each other, our framework stabilizes noisy trajectories and infers plausible motion continuity even when target is occluded. To realize this concept, we design HyperSSM, an architecture that integrates Hypergraph computation and a State Space Model (SSM) for unified spatial-temporal reasoning. The Hypergraph module captures spatial motion correlations through dynamic hyperedges, while the SSM enforces temporal smoothness via structured state transitions. This synergistic design enables simultaneous optimization of spatial consensus and temporal coherence, resulting in robust and stable motion estimation. Extensive experiments on four mainstream and diverse benchmarks(MOT17, MOT20, DanceTrack, and SportsMOT) covering various motion patterns and scene complexities, demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance across a wide range of tracking scenarios.

Continuous Knowledge Metabolism: Generating Scientific Hypotheses from Evolving Literature

Scientific hypothesis generation requires tracking how knowledge evolves, not just what is currently known. We introduce Continuous Knowledge Metabolism (CKM), a framework that processes scientific literature through sliding time windows and incrementally updates a structured knowledge base as new findings arrive. We present CKM-Lite, an efficient variant that achieves strong predictive coverage through incremental accumulation, outperforming batch processing on hit rate (+2.8%, p=0.006), hypothesis yield (+3.6, p<0.001), and best-match alignment (+0.43, p<0.001) while reducing token cost by 92%. To understand what drives these differences, we develop CKM-Full, an instrumented variant that categorizes each new finding as novel, confirming, or contradicting, detects knowledge change signals, and conditions hypothesis generation on the full evolution trajectory. Analyzing 892 hypotheses generated by CKM-Full across 50 research topics, alongside parallel runs of the other variants, we report four empirical observations: (1) incremental processing outperforms batch baseline across predictive and efficiency metrics; (2) change-aware instrumentation is associated with higher LLM-judged novelty (Cohen's d=3.46) but lower predictive coverage, revealing a quality-coverage trade-off; (3) a field's trajectory stability is associated with hypothesis success (r=-0.28, p=0.051), suggesting boundary conditions for literature-based prediction; (4) knowledge convergence signals are associated with nearly 5x higher hit rate than contradiction signals, pointing to differential predictability across change types. These findings suggest that the character of generated hypotheses is shaped not only by how much literature is processed, but also by how it is processed. They further indicate that evaluation frameworks must account for the quality-coverage trade-off rather than optimize for a single metric.

EagleVision: A Multi-Task Benchmark for Cross-Domain Perception in High-Speed Autonomous Racing

High-speed autonomous racing presents extreme perception challenges, including large relative velocities and substantial domain shifts from conventional urban-driving datasets. Existing benchmarks do not adequately capture these high-dynamic conditions. We introduce EagleVision, a unified LiDAR-based multi-task benchmark for 3D detection and trajectory prediction in high-speed racing, providing newly annotated 3D bounding boxes for the Indy Autonomous Challenge dataset (14,893 frames) and the A2RL Real competition dataset (1,163 frames), together with 12,000 simulator-generated annotated frames, all standardized under a common evaluation protocol. Using a dataset-centric transfer framework, we quantify cross-domain generalization across urban, simulator, and real racing domains. Urban pretraining improves detection over scratch training (NDS 0.72 vs. 0.69), while intermediate pretraining on real racing data achieves the best transfer to A2RL (NDS 0.726), outperforming simulator-only adaptation. For trajectory prediction, Indy-trained models surpass in-domain A2RL training on A2RL test sequences (FDE 0.947 vs. 1.250), highlighting the role of motion-distribution coverage in cross-domain forecasting. EagleVision enables systematic study of perception generalization under extreme high-speed dynamics. The dataset and benchmark are publicly available at https://avlab.io/EagleVision

VidTAG: Temporally Aligned Video to GPS Geolocalization with Denoising Sequence Prediction at a Global Scale

The task of video geolocalization aims to determine the precise GPS coordinates of a video's origin and map its trajectory; with applications in forensics, social media, and exploration. Existing classification-based approaches operate at a coarse city-level granularity and fail to capture fine-grained details, while image retrieval methods are impractical on a global scale due to the need for extensive image galleries which are infeasible to compile. Comparatively, constructing a gallery of GPS coordinates is straightforward and inexpensive. We propose VidTAG, a dual-encoder framework that performs frame-to-GPS retrieval using both self-supervised and language-aligned features. To address temporal inconsistencies in video predictions, we introduce the TempGeo module, which aligns frame embeddings, and the GeoRefiner module, an encoder-decoder architecture that refines GPS features using the aligned frame embeddings. Evaluations on Mapillary (MSLS) and GAMa datasets demonstrate our model's ability to generate temporally consistent trajectories and outperform baselines, achieving a 20% improvement at the 1 km threshold over GeoCLIP. We also beat current State-of-the-Art by 25% on global coarse grained video geolocalization (CityGuessr68k). Our approach enables fine-grained video geolocalization and lays a strong foundation for future research. More details on the project webpage: https://parthpk.github.io/vidtag_webpage/

Towards Situation-aware State Modeling for Air Traffic Flow Prediction

Accurate air traffic prediction in the terminal airspace (TA) is pivotal for proactive air traffic management (ATM). However, existing data-driven approaches predominantly rely on time series-based forecasting paradigms, which inherently overlook critical aircraft state information, such as real-time kinematics and proximity to airspace boundaries. To address this limitation, we propose \textit{AeroSense}, a direct state-to-flow modeling framework for air traffic prediction. Unlike classical time series-based methods that first aggregate aircraft trajectories into macroscopic flow sequences before modeling, AeroSense explicitly represents the real-time airspace situation as \textit{a dynamic set of aircraft states}, enabling the direct processing of a variable number of aircraft instead of time series as inputs. Specifically, we introduce a situation-aware state representation that enables AeroSense to sense the instantaneous terminal airspace situation directly from microscopic aircraft states. Furthermore, we design a model architecture that incorporates masked self-attention to capture inter-aircraft interactions, together with two decoupled prediction heads to model heterogeneous flow dynamics across two key functional areas of the TA. Extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world airport dataset demonstrate that AeroSense consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, validating that direct modeling of microscopic aircraft states yields substantially higher predictive fidelity than time series-based baselines. Moreover, the proposed framework exhibits superior robustness during peak traffic periods, achieves Pareto-optimal performance under dayparting multi-object evaluation, and provides meaningful interpretability through attention-based visualizations.

Uncertainty Guided Exploratory Trajectory Optimization for Sampling-Based Model Predictive Control

Trajectory optimization depends heavily on initialization. In particular, sampling-based approaches are highly sensitive to initial solutions, and limited exploration frequently leads them to converge to local minima in complex environments. We present Uncertainty Guided Exploratory Trajectory Optimization (UGE-TO), a trajectory optimization algorithm that generates well-separated samples to achieve a better coverage of the configuration space. UGE-TO represents trajectories as probability distributions induced by uncertainty ellipsoids. Unlike sampling-based approaches that explore only in the action space, this representation captures the effects of both system dynamics and action selection. By incorporating the impact of dynamics, in addition to the action space, into our distributions, our method enhances trajectory diversity by enforcing distributional separation via the Hellinger distance between them. It enables a systematic exploration of the configuration space and improves robustness against local minima. Further, we present UGE-MPC, which integrates UGE-TO into sampling-based model predictive controller methods. Experiments demonstrate that UGE-MPC achieves higher exploration and faster convergence in trajectory optimization compared to baselines under the same sampling budget, achieving 72.1% faster convergence in obstacle-free environments and 66% faster convergence with a 6.7% higher success rate in the cluttered environment compared to the best-performing baseline. Additionally, we validate the approach through a range of simulation scenarios and real-world experiments. Our results indicate that UGE-MPC has higher success rates and faster convergence, especially in environments that demand significant deviations from nominal trajectories to avoid failures. The project and code are available at https://ogpoyrazoglu.github.io/cuniform_sampling/.

Discrete Flow Maps

The sequential nature of autoregressive next-token prediction imposes a fundamental speed limit on large language models. While continuous flow models offer a path to parallel generation, they traditionally demand expensive iterative integration. Flow Maps bypass this bottleneck by compressing generative trajectories into single-step mappings, theoretically enabling the generation of full text sequences from noise in a single forward pass. However, standard formulations rely on Euclidean regression losses that are geometrically ill-suited for discrete data. In this work, we resolve this conflict with Discrete Flow Maps, a framework that reconciles trajectory compression with the geometry of the probability simplex. We recast standard flow map training for the discrete domain, aligning the training dynamics with the discrete nature of language. Empirically, this strict geometric alignment allows our method to surpass previous state-of-the-art results in discrete flow modeling.

Causal Diffusion Models for Counterfactual Outcome Distributions in Longitudinal Data

Predicting counterfactual outcomes in longitudinal data, where sequential treatment decisions heavily depend on evolving patient states, is critical yet notoriously challenging due to complex time-dependent confounding and inadequate uncertainty quantification in existing methods. We introduce the Causal Diffusion Model (CDM), the first denoising diffusion probabilistic approach explicitly designed to generate full probabilistic distributions of counterfactual outcomes under sequential interventions. CDM employs a novel residual denoising architecture with relational self-attention, capturing intricate temporal dependencies and multimodal outcome trajectories without requiring explicit adjustments (e.g., inverse-probability weighting or adversarial balancing) for confounding. In rigorous evaluation on a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic tumor-growth simulator widely adopted in prior work, CDM consistently outperforms state-of-the-art longitudinal causal inference methods, achieving a 15-30% relative improvement in distributional accuracy (1-Wasserstein distance) while maintaining competitive or superior point-estimate accuracy (RMSE) under high-confounding regimes. By unifying uncertainty quantification and robust counterfactual prediction in complex, sequentially confounded settings, without tailored deconfounding, CDM offers a flexible, high-impact tool for decision support in medicine, policy evaluation, and other longitudinal domains.